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犯罪熱點的實證分析 -----警察局勤務指揮中心報案紀錄的分析與運用 An Empirical Analysis on the Hot Spots of Crime ----- An Analysis and Application on the data of Police Operational Command and Control Center作者：孟維德 Wei-Teh Mon 學歷：中央警察大學犯罪防治研究所博士
美國史丹福大學胡佛研究所（Hoover
Institution, Stanford University） 研究，加州大學柏克萊分校法學院（School
of Law, UC Berkeley） 研究 現職：中央警察大學行政管理學系暨研究所副教授 聯絡地址：桃園縣龜山鄉中央警察大學行政管理學系暨研究所 電話：(03)397-4703； 0937516387 電子郵件：mon@sun4.cpu.edu.tw 犯罪熱點的實證分析 -----警察局勤務指揮中心報案紀錄的分析與運用 摘 要
本研究的目的在於探究犯罪與治安事件發生的集中性，主要包括犯罪與治安事件的發生地點是否具集中性？以及若有集中趨勢，集中的幅度大小如何？倘若具有集中趨勢，且集中幅度夠大，這些地點便可成為犯罪預防資源（如警力數）分配的重要參考。本研究以台北縣為研究地區，蒐集台北縣警察局勤務指揮中心在一年期間中，受理轄區民眾報案及請求服務的電話紀錄，繼而分析這些紀錄的案發地點，共計分析109,351件紀錄資料。本研究發現，在台北縣各警察分局轄區中，平均4.33%的警勤區大約可以解釋30%的一般刑案發生量。在一般車禍案件方面，台北縣各警察分局轄區中，平均有33.53%的一般車禍案件是集中發生在4.33%的警勤區中。另外，在為民服務案件方面，本研究也發現，台北縣警察分局4.33%的警勤區，平均約可解釋超過30%的為民服務案件發生量；大約有三成到四成的為民服務案件集中在不到5%的警勤區中。換言之，犯罪與治安事件發生地點的集中趨勢可說是相當明顯。本研究認為，警察若能規劃出在犯罪（治安事件）集中地區適當的預防作為，那麼警察將犯罪防制資源（如警力數）擺在這些特定地區，應是一經濟且有效的做法。 關鍵詞：警察，犯罪預防，犯罪地點，報案紀錄，日常活動理論。 Abstract
The purpose of this research is to explore the geographical
concentration of crime and related events. Theoretically, if the tendency
of geographical concentration of crime and related events is significant
enough, these hot spots of crime can become a good criterion for the
allocation of crime control resources. Taipei county area was selected and
studied in this research. Data was collected from the Operational Command
and Control Center of Taipei County Police Department. The data analyzed
in this research includes the 109,351 telephone call records to which the
police were dispatched. According to a large number of data analysis, this
research finds that 4.33% beats of every Taipei county police branch
station can explain approximately 30% of the general criminal cases in its
jurisdiction. 33.53% of all normal vehicle accidents only occurred at
4.33% of the beats. Only 4.33% of the beats produced over 30% of the calls
for police services. Averagely, only 4.33% of the beats produced 30% to
40% of the calls to which the police were dispatched. The concentration of
crime in the few beats is obvious. This article argues that the police
should allocate more crime control resources in these beats. Keyword:
Police, Crime Prevention, Crime Place, Record of Call to the Police,
Routine Activity Theory |