台灣地區國小暨國中學生輟學概況及其與社會鉅觀因素關係之比較分析
A Comparative Research on Primary School and Junior High School Dropouts' Macro-social Factors in Taiwan

何進財*、鄧煌發**
Herh, Chin-Chai & Teng, Huang-Fa

摘要

        為瞭解近五年來(1995-1999)台灣地區23個行政區域(2直轄市、16縣與5省轄市)義務教育(包含國小與國中教育)階段輟學的大概情況，本研究使用官方的統計資料進行次級分析，並檢視這些年來的社會鉅觀因素(包括人口結構、社會問題、教育結構等方面)與義務教育階段輟學之間的關係；並依據群落分析結果，將這些行政區域以輟學的嚴重程度概分為三個群組，並比較此三區域的社會鉅觀因素之差異。
研究發現，官方輟學統計資料之呈現有人為因素在內，表示輟學問題非自然形成，除可能隱含各種社會成因之外，部分地區可能也有人為操控輟學人數之情事。此外，研究發現與義務教育階段輟學有關的社會鉅觀因素，包括該行政區的原住民人口比例、人口密度、出生率、死亡率、刑案發生率、失業率、學校服務面積、師生比等因素，班級人數之多寡則未必有關。台北縣的社會狀況與直轄市、省轄市相同，桃園、台中、台南、高雄與宜蘭等五縣的社會狀況非常接近直轄市與省轄市。研究的最後，提出了一些改輟學資料統計的原則與方法，並且以比較經濟的方法來防治義務教育階段的輟學狀況的發生。
關鍵字：輟學、社會鉅觀因素、群落分析

* 何進財，國立政治大學教育心理學系博士，現任教育部訓育委員會常任委員。
** 鄧煌發，本校犯罪防治學系專任講師，該系博士候選人。

Abstract

The trends of elementary and junior students' dropout rates in recent years on Taiwan will be discussed in this paper. In order to find which social macro-factors will turn dropout rate down, data gathering from official bureau, depart them to 23 units by city/county, process them with cluster analysis method. Some interesting results were found.
Ironically, dropout rates on those years were manipulated by someone or for some reasons. The rate of aboriginal population, population density, birth, death, and unemployment rate and some structural factors of education will affect the dropout rates in Taiwan. The size of a class in a school is not an important one causing fundamental and junior students' to have dropout behaviors. 23 units will be dividing 3 independent groups. The group composed of Hualien and Taitung counties have the highest dropout rate all over the Taiwan around. They are eastern counties on Taiwan province, having the highest death rate, but having the lowest citizen income, population rate, and lacking social support system. So, how to improve their bad conditions is acute facing theme by the new government.
Finally, some suggestions and conclusions were discussed in the last part of this paper.
Keyword: dropout, macro-social factors, cluster analysis